(23) PREDICTING MATCH DAY SUCCESS FROM TRAINING LOAD IN NCAA DIVISION I WOMEN’S SOCCER

Introduction: The dominance and popularity of women’s soccer has become difficult to ignore. External load monitoring using combined accelerometry and GPS is a common method to quantify volume and intensity of soccer-specific training. Scarce data exist regarding the utility of training load (TL) as a modifiable predictor of match day (MD) success in female athletes.

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate differences in readiness and TL variables between successful (win) and unsuccessful (lose/draw) outcomes two days (MD-2) and one day (MD-1) prior to MD in elite women’s soccer and identify significant MD-2 and MD-1 predictors of MD success.

Methods: Seventeen NCAA Division I women’s soccer athletes (mean±SD; Age=19.8±1.4 yrs) averaging a minimum of 20 minutes in ≥ 85% of matches across the season (excluding goalkeepers) were tracked for the duration of their 2023 season (Aug-Nov). Readiness (%) was calculated as an aggregate of perceived stress, fatigue, mood, soreness, and sleep duration and quality (range: -3 to +3) using electronic daily surveys. TL metrics were collected daily via wearable GPS units and included distance (DIS; m), maximum speed (MS; km/h), high-intensity running (HIR; m ≥15km/h), high-intensity events (HIE; # of HIR efforts ≥5 seconds), and sprint distance (SPD; m ≥90% MS). Successful and unsuccessful MD outcomes in MD-2 and MD-1 readiness scores and TLs were evaluated with t-tests. Stepwise logistic regressions were used to identify significant predictors of successful MD outcomes.

Results: No significant differences were observed in readiness (average MD-2: 81.8%; MD-1: 83.3%) or MS (average MD-2: 23.9 km/h; MD-1: 22.0 km/h) for MD-2 or MD-1 (p >0.05). Significant differences were observed between successful and unsuccessful MD outcomes in HIR (mean difference±SE [win – lose/draw]: -47.1±22.4m; p=0.037) and HIE (-13.7±1.6; p< 0.001) in MD-2 and DIS (-256.6±59.7m; p< 0.001), HIR (-11.1±6.6m; p=0.048), HIE (-2.3±0.4; p< 0.001) in MD-1. Significant predictors for successful MD outcomes included: DIST (odds ratio (OR): 0.999; b: -0.001; p=0.005), HIE (OR: 0.750; b: -0.287; p< 0.001), MS (OR: 1.334; β: 0.288; p=0.007), and HIR (OR: 1.006; b: 0.006; p=0.020) on MD-2, and MS (OR: 1.169; b: 0.156; p=0.038) on MD-1. The model including MD-2 and MD-1 predictors above was statistically significant (X²=162.9; p< 0.001), explained 75% (Nagelkerke R²) of the variance in MD outcome, and correctly classified MD win/loss outcome in 89.1% of cases.

Conclusion: Lower volumes and higher intensities in the final practices leading up to MD were associated with successful MD outcomes. Specifically, greater MD-2 volume (DIST, HIE) reduced the likelihood of MD success. Tracking volume (DIST) and intensity (MS) prior to MD are important components for periodizing external load and is associated with increased likelihood of MD success. Decreasing volume and increasing intensity going into MD appears to produce the most favorable MD outcome. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Greater match day success may be reduced by 0.1% for every 1m of DIST and 25% for every HIE accrued on MD-2. Notably, increases in MS increased the likelihood of a MD win by 33.4% and 16.9% for every increase of 1 km/h in MD-2 and MD-1, respectively.

Acknowledgements: None